You know how when you cook pasta you have to bring the water to a boil before putting the pasta in? And you know how when you lift the lid of the pot to see if the water is boiling before it’s actually boiling sometimes you’ll see the odd bubble here and there rising to the surface? That’s how I’d describe the residential real estate market in central Toronto right now. It’s definitely not at a full boil, but there’s the odd bubble here and there.

For the most part, the market is on the quiet side. I feel like there are two market segments – the sellers’ segment and the buyers’ segment. In many cases, the sellers’ segment is operating at a higher price level than the buyers’ segment. There’s no overlap. Demand and supply aren’t intersecting so there aren’t a lot of sales. 

What do I mean by this? Most sellers don’t have to sell and will only sell if they get a certain price. Usually, that price hasn’t been seen in a few years because prices have come down so they’re unlikely to sell unless a buyer is willing to pay them a premium price. Most buyers don’t have to buy and will only buy if they see the right home at the right price, which is the current price and not a premium price. So many homes aren’t selling. 

But there are still some homes that are selling so which ones have been selling? First, homes that have been recently renovated tend to sell quickly. Buyers are often willing to pay a premium for this kind of home because they’re just too good to pass up. These homes are selling in the sellers’ segment of the market. Second, homes that are properly priced to reflect today’s market are also selling. There ARE buyers out there and they ARE willing to pay reasonable prices. These homes are selling in the buyers’ segment of the market. For the most part, I’m not surprised by the sale prices I’ve been seeing because they’re fairly predictable if you know what you’re looking for except when there’s a seller who absolutely needs to sell or a buyer who absolutely needs to buy. In those cases, the sale price may be lower or higher than expected.

Although I’m not often surprised by sale prices, there are still times a sale price catches my eye as being somewhat out of the ordinary. Those are the odd bubbles you see here and there before the water boils. For example, we received a low ball offer on one of our listings this fall. Our clients chose not to even sign it back because they weren’t desperate to sell. We figured the buyer was fishing for a deal and would keep fishing until they found one. A short time later, we noticed the buyer paid what we thought was a very high price for another home. The type of price we could call a full boil price. It made no sense. Why would they do that? Why pay $1.5m for a home without a family room addition when homes with family room additions are selling for $1.4m? Because sometimes buyers get carried away. 

In a full boil market, that high price would’ve been the jumping off point for future sale prices. Other buyers would’ve gotten scared the market was about to take off and felt compelled to pay high prices to secure homes before prices started to skyrocket. But that didn’t happen. Likely because not all buyers have itchy trigger fingers yet. The next sale price for a similar home was back to $1.4m for a home with a family room addition. The water didn’t boil.

This isn’t an isolated incident. There are other odd bubbles here and there. The recent interest rate cuts haven’t brought the pot to a boil as many expected it would, but there are signs of it happening on the horizon. You know what it means when you start to see more and more odd bubbles in the pot, don’t you?

My best guess is the spring market is going to be an active one and we’re going to see increasing prices. The market is solid now. Although prices have come down, they haven’t come down that much, so don’t despair if you do need to sell now. But if you can wait til the spring, you might get a higher price. If you’re looking to buy, now is probably a good time, but there aren’t a lot of homes from which to choose. As prices increase, more sellers will put their homes on the market so you might want to wait til the spring when there’s a greater selection of homes on the market even though you might have to pay a little more.

In the meantime, feel free to contact Corinne, Anthony or me with any questions you may have. One thing that never changes is it’s never too early to start getting ready to buy or sell your home, even if it’s only a matter of gathering information.

The market usually tends to get quiet at this time of year so unless there’s some earth shattering news before the end of the year which I feel you can’t live without, this will be the last update of 2024. I hope you find these helpful. Or educational. Or entertaining. 

Finally, as we enter holiday season, enjoy your time with family and friends. It’s important to remember what’s important. Speak to you in 2025! 

If you’d like to check out the numbers, take a look at the charts below.

Central Toronto – Market Overview

Prices – John Wanless and Bedford Park Public School Neighbourhoods

There are five typical home styles in the neighbourhood north of Lawrence, east of Avenue Road, west of Mount Pleasant Road and south of Old Orchard Grove and Snowdon Avenue. Each typical home style is shown on the chart below. Please remember that factors such as house size, lot size and dimensions, condition and location, amongst others, affect selling prices.

Prices – John Ross Robertson, Lytton Park, Lawrence Park and Cricket Club Areas

JOHN ROSS ROBERTSON – Chudleigh Ave., Cheritan Ave., Chatsworth Dr., Glenview Ave., Glengrove Ave. W., Glencairn Ave.

LYTTON PARK – east and west of Avenue Road: Alexandra Blvd., Lytton Blvd., Strathallan Blvd., Cortleigh Blvd., Hillhurst Blvd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)

LAWRENCE PARK – between Yonge St., Bayview Ave., Lawrence Ave. E., and Blythwood Rd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)

CRICKET CLUB – between Avenue Rd., Yonge St., Wilson Ave., and Brooke Ave.