There’s no specific date marking the start of the spring market in central Toronto. There have been years it started as early as February and others when it started as late as June. Some years it doesn’t start at all! There’s no rhyme or reason for this lack of precise timing. Whether and when the spring market starts can be affected by the weather (snowstorms tend to delay it, warm weather hastens it), interest rate increases and decreases, the amount of supply and strength of demand and, most importantly, consumer sentiment, amongst other things. But if you asked me when the spring market usually starts, I’d say it usually starts now, after March Break. Sometimes it gets off to a fast start and sometimes it starts slowly and builds, but it usually starts around now.
And if you asked me when the market peaks, as in when do prices hit their highest point of the year, that, too, is somewhat random and not subject to any definite rules, but the month of May often has the highest average sale price of the year.
The market was a little sluggish in 2024, especially in the fall, but there were signs it was about to pick up. Those signs continued in the early part of this year. Many people involved in the market on a daily basis, myself included, had the feeling the market was picking up steam and this year’s spring market would be a busy one with prices increasing modestly.
And then, well, you know what happened. The residential real estate market in central Toronto is driven by consumer sentiment more than anything else. People will always need a place to live. Sometimes they need a bigger place or a smaller place or a place in a different part of the city. Sometimes they just need a place in this city because they’ve been living in another city. But before they put down a large sum to purchase their new home, they need to be comfortable with what they’re doing. Part of feeling comfortable involves having a sense of the direction in which the market is heading with some degree of confidence because if they know the direction, they can estimate the risks and plan accordingly when they determine how much they’re willing to pay or accept for their home.
When it’s impossible to see which direction the market might take, risk increases and planning becomes difficult. This increased risk makes buyers and sellers less willing to buy or sell unless they have a strong motivation which may not be financially related or they’re in a financial position to take the increased risk.
Although the market looked to be picking up steam at the beginning of the year and it looked like the spring market would be a strong one, one would be hard pressed to say that’s still the case. The economic uncertainty with which we’re currently living is affecting consumer sentiment which is affecting the market.
I’m not saying the market is terrible and prices are crashing. Far from it. Homes are still selling. Some are selling quickly and some are taking a little more time to sell. Some are selling at the same price they would’ve sold for in the past few years and some are selling for lower prices. It all depends on how motivated each buyer and seller is. A seller may say “I don’t have to sell and I’m not selling unless I get $2m for my house because that’s what I would’ve gotten in February 2022!” (Prices peaked then.) And there may be a buyer who says “I’ve been waiting for a house just like this for five years so I’m willing to pay $2m.” Or there may be no such buyers and the seller will decide to not sell or accept a lower price. For the most part, while there are still sales at the higher prices of the past few years, I’d say there are more sale prices that are a little lower. Not a lot lower. Maybe 5-10% in central Toronto depending on which months you’re comparing, but still lower.
What’s the takeaway? If you’re buying, you may get a house at a slightly lower price than you would’ve paid over the past couple years. Or you may have to pay the same price you would’ve paid a couple years ago if you really want the house. If you’re selling, you may get the high price you would’ve gotten over the past couple years. Or you may have to accept a lower price that reflects today’s market conditions if you really want to sell.
What do I think will happen next? You’re kidding, right? But if I had to guess, I’d say the spring market will be fine. People will get used to the uncertainty. As Heraclitus said, the only constant in life is change. Some people will buy and some people will sell. I don’t think the market will crash and I don’t think prices will skyrocket. It’s probably a good time to buy a house.
(BTW If you’re feeling any stress about what’s going on in the world, you might want to check out my latest blog post: https://michaellikesthinking.com/2025/03/12/my-code/. It doesn’t have a cure for stress, but, as the biased author, I still think you might find it helpful.)
As always, please feel free to reach out to Anthony, Corinne or me if you have any questions at all about real estate. We’re happy to help you try to make sense of what’s best for your personal situation given current market conditions.
If you’d like to check out the numbers, take a look at the charts below.
Central Toronto – Market Overview
| Average Price | % of List | # of Sales | Total Listings | # of New Listings | Average Days on Market | |
| Feb ’24 | $1,129,875 | 99% | 898 | 3,094 | 2,348 | 43 |
| Mar ’24 | $1,160,638 | 100% | 1,095 | 3,486 | 2,642 | 38 |
| Apr ’24 | $1,246,695 | 100% | 1,225 | 4,582 | 3,675 | 34 |
| May ’24 | $1,293,206 | 101% | 1,305 | 5,483 | 4,049 | 32 |
| Jun ’24 | $1,235,125 | 99% | 1,073 | 5,786 | 3,641 | 35 |
| Jul ’24 | $1,157,766 | 98% | 949 | 5,659 | 3,368 | 41 |
| Aug ’24 | $1,099,216 | 98% | 806 | 5,118 | 2,220 | 52 |
| Sep ’24 | $1,212,456 | 98% | 838 | 5,848 | 3,806 | 47 |
| Oct ’24 | $1,292,248 | 98% | 1,168 | 5,657 | 3,104 | 49 |
| Nov ’24 | $1,136,670 | 98% | 1,080 | 5,031 | 2,310 | 53 |
| Dec ’24 | $1,088,650 | 97% | 569 | 3,675 | 941 | 68 |
| Jan ’25 | $1,042,539 | 98% | 645 | 4,143 | 2,725 | 63 |
| Feb ’25 | $1,155,470 | 98% | 775 | 4,668 | 2,574 | 49 |
Prices – John Wanless and Bedford Park Public School Neighbourhoods
There are five typical home styles in the neighbourhood north of Lawrence, east of Avenue Road, west of Mount Pleasant Road and south of Old Orchard Grove and Snowdon Avenue. Each typical home style is shown on the chart below. Please remember that factors such as house size, lot size and dimensions, condition and location, amongst others, affect selling prices.
| Type of Home | No. of Sales | Price Range | Ave. Price | Date |
|
0 | – | – | May ’23 – Sep ’23 |
|
12 | $1,320,000- $1,850,000 | $1,573,750 | May ’23 – Sep ’23 |
|
7 | $1,615,000 – $2,030,000 | $1,844,750 | May ’23 – Sep ’23 |
|
8 | $1,810,000 – $2,238,000 | $2,078,000 | May ’23 – Sep ’23 |
|
4 | $2,800,000 – $3,500,000 | $3,090,000 | May ’23 – Sep ’23 |
Prices – John Ross Robertson, Lytton Park, Lawrence Park and Cricket Club Areas
JOHN ROSS ROBERTSON – Chudleigh Ave., Cheritan Ave., Chatsworth Dr., Glenview Ave., Glengrove Ave. W., Glencairn Ave.
LYTTON PARK – east and west of Avenue Road: Alexandra Blvd., Lytton Blvd., Strathallan Blvd., Cortleigh Blvd., Hillhurst Blvd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)
LAWRENCE PARK – between Yonge St., Bayview Ave., Lawrence Ave. E., and Blythwood Rd. (almost all of these homes are on 50 foot wide lots)
CRICKET CLUB – between Avenue Rd., Yonge St., Wilson Ave., and Brooke Ave.
| House Type | John Ross Robertson | Lytton Park | Lawrence Park | Cricket Club |
|
$2,000,000 – $2,500,000 | Not found in this area | Not found in this area | $2,000,000 – $2,200,000 |
|
$2,200,000 – $3,200,000 | Not found in this area | Not found in this area | $2,000,000 – $2,600,000 |
|
$3,200,000 – $3,600,000 | $2,700,000 – $3,200,000 | $3,200,000 – $3,500,000 | $2,600,000 – $3,000,000 |
|
$3,200,000+ | $2,900,000 – $3,200,000 | $3,200,000+ | $2,900,000 – $3,500,000 |
|
$3,200,000 – $4,000,000 | $2,700,000 – $3,000,000 | $3,200,000 – $3,500,000 | $2,600,000 – $3,000,000 |
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